Employment revival in Europe (1) Small countries on the way to success
High level tripartite informal conference about "Social Dialogue, Employment Policy and the Principles of Equal Treatment" - Malta, September 2000
Peter Auer
Head, labour market team
Employment Strategy Department
ILO, Geneva
Introduction
During the last twenty years the conventional wisdom has been
that the European labour market is "sclerotic", in stark contrast
to the dynamic US labour market. The USA has experienced much
higher growth rates of employment and markedly lower unemployment
than Europe. Despite GDP growth rates which were comparable
with the US over the long term and at times even higher, economic
growth contributed only very marginally to an expansion of employment.
Unemployment also continued to grow in the European Union, reaching
around 11% of the labour force in the middle of the nineties,
and has only very recently started to fall below the 10% threshold.
The causes of US success were widely seen in its free market
approach, flexible wages resulting in high income differentiation
and low employment protection resulting in flexibly adjusting
employment . The prescription of leading economists for Europe
was to use the same ingredients as those which were believed
to be at the core of American success. Deregulation and privatisation
were to lead to a retreat of governments and the social partners
from intervention in the markets. An entrepreneurial spirit,
relieved from the straitjacket of rules and regulations, and
a wage policy left to the needs of the market would finally
result in an improvement of the economy and the labour market
and (re)establish the positive dynamics of the market forces
everywhere.
Core elements of the European model, such as corporatist and
often centralised collective bargaining leading to high and
downwardly rigid wages, ever expanding social and employment
protection and the strong role of the state in the sociol-economy,
were seen as the culprits in Europe's labour market problems.
Unemployment was declared to be structural and voluntary, in
the sense that rational actors on the labour markets would not
take up work, if there were alternatives of "making unemployment
pay" in the form of overgenerous benefits. In addition, high
levels of public involvement and employment were denounced as
displacing private initiatives, for example in the service sector.
Clearly, in such an approach there was no place for government
to regulate the economy. Aggregate demand was seen as the outcome
of the interplay of the market forces and if supply was flexible
enough "it would create its own demand", as J.B. Say had postulated
back in the early 19th century. And according to the concept
of the natural rate of unemployment (M. Friedman, 1968) government
intervention would only result in higher inflation. In a nutshell
the visible hand of government and the social partners should
give way to the invisible hand of market forces.
While there was opposition in many European countries to the
adoption of these supply side policies, observers agree that
during the last decade supply side considerations have dominated
the debate and have also been policy driving in Europe. A reminder
of the major recent policy debates in Europe shows this quite
strikingly: In the forefront of the debate and policy making
stood neither fiscal expansion, regulation, extension of public
employment and nationalisation nor the expansion of the social
security network, but rather supply side reforms, deregulation,
privatisation and the curbing of public jobs. Countries like
France which in the early eighties put the policies of the "old"
demand side agenda into practice for a brief period, followed
many of the prescriptions of the "new" supply side agenda after
1982.
Today a number of smaller European countries have seen such
a major fall in unemployment that one can speak of labour market
recovery and relative success at last. Consequently, one of
the questions of the present study is whether the application
of the above policies has contributed to the success of the
four countries under review. To be frank from the outset: we
do not believe that recent labour market success can be categorically
explained by the retreat of the government and the social partners,
by deregulation, privatisation, reduced public jobs or lean
organisation. Although such policies might have made a contribution
to labour market success, the main explanation lies elsewhere:
it is not the countries which have reduced social spending most,
have curbed government intervention drastically or minimised
social partnership which are today leading success cases. It
is rather those which have retained, while adapting , their
institutions, which today see their economic success spilling
over onto the labour market. It is therefore not the flexibility
of the market, but the existence and adaptability of institutions
and regulations, which explains success in the cases reviewed.
Contrary to widespread assumptions, they were not in fact too
rigid to survive in an environment demanding greater adaptability.
The special European way of dealing with change, filtering it
through its established labour market institutions, leads to
positive results. In other words, in Europe the "baby was not
thrown out with the bath water". The baby (institutions) was
kept and the water (inefficiencies in the institutions) was
at least partially thrown out and this accounts for a large
part of European success.
Relative Labour Market Success
While the European Union as a total still has high unemployment
rates which have only recently fallen below the 10 percent mark,
some of the smaller European countries have in fact a much better
labour market record. For the sake of this study four smaller
European countries were chosen because of a variety of reasons:
they all are experiencing recently a fall in unemployment and
some of them have managed to have employment growth rates similar
to those of the US job machine. But besides such criteria, there
have also been other considerations, such as the consent of
the governing body of the ILO and the willingness of countries
to participate in the studies.
Chart 1 in the annex and table 1 below show that the four
countries under review have succeeded in curbing unemployment.
In addition some of the countries have recently seen a rapid
increase in employment and in the employment intensity of economic
growth, which shows that fears of jobless growth are -at least
for the employment generating service sector- unfounded. (see
table 2). Also employment rates (the share of the employed in
the population of working age) have increased in all four countries.
The differences between male and female employment rates have
generally been reduced, but remain large, especially if employment
rates in full-time equivalents are considered, because of many
women working part-time. Youth unemployment has also continued
to decline, as did long-term unemployment.
Table 1: Unemployment change February 1998/February 2000, seasonally
adjusted (%)
| total |
|
|
|
male |
|
|
female |
|
gender gap** |
|
February
1998
|
February
2000
|
change
(%)
|
February
1998
|
February
2000
|
change
(%)
|
February
1998
|
February
2000
|
change
(%)
|
February
2000
|
| Austria |
4,6 |
3,5 |
-23% |
3,9 |
3,1 |
-20% |
5,6 |
4,2 |
-25% |
1,1 |
| Denmark |
5,3 |
4,9 |
-7% |
4,1 |
4,2 |
+2% |
6,8 |
5,6 |
-18% |
1,4 |
| Ireland |
8,4 |
5,1 |
-40% |
8,6 |
5,1 |
-41% |
8,1 |
5,1 |
- 37% |
0,0 |
| Netherlands |
4,6 |
2,7* |
-41% |
3,5 |
2,1* |
-40% |
6,1* |
3,6 |
-41% |
1,5 |
| EU |
10,2 |
8,8 |
-13% |
8,8 |
7,5 |
-15% |
12,1 |
10,4 |
-14% |
1,6 |
| Source:
Eurostat press release March 2000, Internet version.
* January 2000
** Difference male female unemployment
rate
|
Table 2: GDP growth and
employment growth 1985 -1998 and 1994-1997/ annual
average growth rates
|
GDP
(1) (2)
|
employment
(1) (2)
|
employment intensity*
(1)
(2)
|
| Austria |
2,50
|
2,10
|
0,56
|
-0,20
|
0,224
|
0,00 |
| Denmark |
2,04
|
2,70
|
0,46
|
1,70
|
0,225
|
0,70 |
| Ireland |
5,84
|
9,90
|
1,26
|
4,40
|
0,215
|
0,62 |
| Netherlands |
2,80
|
3,00
|
1,87
|
2,20
|
0,668
|
0,73 |
| EU 15 |
2,13
|
1,70
|
0,44
|
0,50
|
0,207
|
0,20 |
| USA |
2,55
|
3,30
|
1,47
|
1,90
|
0,576
|
0,60 |
*Employment/GDP
= percentage points of employment created for 1% of economic
growth
(1) 1985-1998 (2) 1994-1997
Source:ILO CEPR comparative
report on the basis of OECD, Employment Outlook 1998, figures
for 1998 are estimates; European Commission, Employment in Europe
1998
This success is particularly visible, when the four countries
are compared to some of the bigger countries in Europe
(2), which still suffer from depressed
labour markets with sometimes very high levels of unemployment,
youth and long-term unemployment. While unemployment in Ireland
has declined rapidly, it is still high compared with the three
other countries. However, it has now fallen significantly below
the EU average. Ireland is also experiencing a fast decline
in youth and long-term unemployment, however from a high level.
Austria, which has maintained low levels of unemployment over
a long period, had lately seen a small increase, but has most
recently succeeded in a decrease. In addition it has both low
youth and long-term unemployment.
Even if Dutch unemployment levels are now
below the threshold of the traditional definition of full employment
(3%), none of the countries has yet reached full employment
if qualitative criteria are also included. In addition, the
official unemployment rate, based on the ILO definition
(3) does not show the real extent of
joblessness, as some unemployment is hidden. (4)
There is some way to go before we can speak of absolute and
not relative success. However, while this employment success
has been accompanied by a change in the structure of employment
from permanent full-time jobs to a more heterogeneous pattern
of jobs (such as part-time and temporary jobs), it seems that
the labour markets have not (yet) changed dramatically. In fact,
permanent full-time and part-time jobs are still the dominant
form of employment in European labour markets and flexible jobs
rather marginal (at least measured in stock terms). Also job
tenure is only slightly declining and it seems that declining
tenure for men is to a certain extent offset by rising tenure
of women. An ILO study (Auer,Cazes, forthcoming) will deal in
detail with this question.
The overall conclusion concerning rising wage inequalities,
which are often seen as a corollary to rising employment, is
that at least three of the countries, which belong to the Northern
and Central European socio-economic model, produce less inequalities
than those which are based on a free market approach. (5)
In fact, the countries analysed here, show a better efficiency/equity
balance as for example the USA.
Social dialogue
This results from collective bargaining between the social
partners within systems of "corporatist governance" (6)
but is also due to the efficiency of the social transfer system
in poverty reduction which itself can be considered as an outcome
of the social dialogue. While the social transfer system has
been much criticised for inefficiently allocating public money,
such criticism has certainly been blunted by the recent changes
introduced in the system , especially the "activating" elements
in labour market policies. This will make it increasingly more
difficult to draw "passive" unemployment benefits (e.g. those
not traded off for participation in intensive job search training
or job creation schemes) for long periods.
Historically, an insufficiently developed social dialogue
had contributed to the employment crisis in the seventies and
early eighties, triggered by the two oil crisis. At that time
the social dialogue experienced problems and the approach was
often more adversarial and ideologically charged. However, when
the social dialogue became more pragmatic and oriented towards
problem solving, it contributed importantly to employment success.
A new concerted effort by social partners and governments to
tackle the pending problems that had afflicted Europe in the
1980s and early 1990s, as weak competitiveness and a worsening
employment situation, has finally permitted some countries to
emerge from crisis.
In three of the countries under review, such a concerted effort
is witnessed by the conclusion of social pacts of a national
dimension: the first was concluded in 1982 in the Netherlands
(the Wassenaar Agreement), followed by the "Declaration of Intent"
in Denmark and the "Programme for National Recovery" in Ireland,
both signed in 1987. The pacts expressed the desire of the partners
to cooperate in order to solve the problems facing the economy
through a concerted approach based on wage moderation and a
boost in competitiveness, while maintaining but reforming the
welfare state. Typical trade-offs for moderate wage increases
were tax cuts, working time reductions and labour market policy
measures (e.g. measures to cushion employment adjustment). Concerted
action between the social partners and the government has been
the traditional way of governance in Austria, and no new pact
has been concluded. However, there, too, the system was confronted
with new challenges, such as the privatisation of the nationalised
industries or the reform of social security.
While in other countries, such as the UK and New Zealand,
the crisis ended in the dismantling of much of the existing
social dialogue and its institutions, in the countries under
review, the song of the "sirens of deregulation" (Alan, 1997)
actually had the effect of reinvigorating the social dialogue.
The governments in these countries usually took a leading role
in bringing the partners together to the bargaining table, designing
and/or endorsing reform plans and in financing parts of the
trade-offs for wage moderation. The state was therefore a very
proactive agent of change.
Macroeconomic policy
Not only the social dialogue and the reforms it has made possible,
also the macroeconomic environment and macroeconomic policy
have been important factors to explain the success of these
countries. The macroeconomic environment in Europe in general
is today much healthier than in the seventies and eighties:
low inflation, low interest rates, moderate wage growth and
consolidated government budgets have restored confidence in
the economies. It seems to be accepted that fairly tight monetary
policies have helped to create this environment, as has moderate
wage growth as an essential result of the social dialogue. Economic
growth has been driven by foreign and domestic demand, the share
of the former tending to increase over the nineties, but the
latter seems to have staged a temporary comeback as foreign
demand weakened in the wake of the Asian crisis. Also domestic
and foreign investments have boosted growth and employment.
Last but not least, government consumption are also part of
this favourable situation. Despite claims that government expenses
tend to crowd out private demand and investments, it rather
seems that the expenditure elements of GDP are mutually supportive
(Schettkat, forthcoming). While structural elements of the budget
have become more important, in some countries (e.g. Denmark)
government expenditure has been used in a targeted and short-term
manner and has supported upswings without creating inflationary
pressures. At least two of the countries experienced a de facto
devaluation (by moderate wage policies) against some of their
major (European) trade partners and this has also spurred their
economies (Hartog, 1999). However, claims that "beggar-thy-neighbour"
policies are the major factors behind superior economic performance,
seem exaggerated.
Tax policies have been changed, resulting lately in a reduction
of social contributions for the low wage sector and (in some
countries) a decrease in the highest rates in the tax progression.
Corporate taxes have also been lowered and might have stimulated
investments . Tax revenues have risen in absolute
figures but declined as a share of GDP in Ireland and the Netherlands.
But in Denmark and Austria, increased revenue has also been
used to create additional public jobs and has not hindered Denmark
in triggering off a general improvement of its economy and the
labour market. However, there are still many differences in
tax structures and they might distort competition in Europe.
The realisation of the EMU will in future increase pressure
for a harmonisation not only of monetary, fiscal and wage policies,
but also of tax policies.
Labour Market Policy
Both active and passive labour market policy are important
policy tools to regulate employment and unemployment. The study
has found some evidence, that unemployment benefit systems and
other passive labour market policy instruments such as early
retirements are not only mechanisms to protect workers but allow
also flexible employment adjustment for companies. Especially
unemployment systems, which are used de jure or de facto as
lay-off systems provide an important flexibility buffer, in
particular for smaller firms. The percentage of those unemployed
returning to their employer after a short duration unemployment
spell shows this convincingly.
Early retirement has provided exit flexibility for firms and
allowed workers to enjoy a better status than being unemployed
at the end of their working lives. Invalidity pension systems
have also been used for labour market purposes. While this supply
reduction policies explain some of the successes of the past,
the continuation of these policies might pose a challenge for
the future. The ageing of the workforce and the high costs of
the "easy exit" solution, which can also go together with a
loss of experienced "human capital", require new solutions.
Cuts in the systems, with the aim of reducing costs, might lead
to an increase in unemployment for older workers. Therefore,
such necessary cuts should be implemented carefully and preferably
if other alternatives (namely new jobs for older workers) exist,
or if firms are willing to maintain employment relationships
with their older workforce. In any case income security at the
end of working life, before regular retirement is an important
element of the European system of social protection.
Many smaller (administrative) reforms have been undertaken
in the unemployment protection systems in almost all of the
countries under review, some of which have also produced the
intended effect. In Denmark, for example, restriction on the
access of poorly educated youth to benefits by linking benefit
payment to an obligatory participation in education had a tangible
effect on youth unemployment. However, this is much more a policy
of activation (as it compensates restrictions on the passive
side with offers on the active side) and the study found that
in general policies of activation are more promising than administrative
changes alone.
In all countries, but to very different degrees, active labour
market policy, a second best solution after regular employment,
have played an important role in the recovery. Especially in
Denmark such measures have been used quite substantially. There
are however considerable differences between countries as to
the distribution between active and passive policies. As evaluation
research has shown, the impact of active labour market policy
might also be reduced through deadweight or substitution effects.
However, the weight of active labour market measures is bound
to increase because of the effects of the European Employment
Strategy with its goal to increase employment, employability
and the employment rate.
In addition, as the employment systems are bound to change
towards more flexibility, a large number of people will transit
between jobs, between jobs and unemployment, between jobs and
training, and between jobs and (parental) leave schemes etc.
These transitions will also need to be accompanied by labour
market policies, ensuring a bridge between work and non-work.
(Schmid, G. (1995); Gazier, G. (1999).
Country specific factors
While the three policies (macroeconomic, social dialogue and
labour market policies) in their specific combination explain
a large part of the success of the countries in their labour
markets, there are also specific reasons in each of the countries.
For example, Ireland has attracted a large part of foreign direct
investment in a strategic growth sector -information technology-
which has resulted in high growth rates. European structural
funds money has also contributed to GDP growth. The Netherlands
have been world champions in the creation of part-time jobs,
often in conjunction with an increase in the activities of temporary
work agencies. Austria has benefited from the opening of the
Eastern markets and Denmark has enacted a policy of job rotation
and training leaves fitting well with its other institutional
features such as a lay-off system and comprehensive adult training.
All countries have also developed specific clusters of production
(e.g. transport in the Netherlands, IT in Ireland, car parts
in Austria) which have been growth intensive.
Combination effects
More than from isolated policy actions, labour market success
seems to result from an efficient combination of factors. Our
study offers some indications on how such interactions might
work. At the macroeconomic level, tight monetary policy, fiscal
consolidation and wage moderation policies seem to have accommodated
each other and the Austria is a good example of how to introduce
long term stability by such a coordination of policies.
More specifically, on the labour markets in Denmark and Austria,
weak dismissal protection (on the regulation side in Denmark
and "de-facto" in Austria) seems to go together with relatively
strong (income) protection at the societal level (whereby unemployment
benefits are higher in Denmark than in Austria). In these countries,
where small and medium-sized firms prevail, such systems seem
to support the economy and the labour market and add to flexibility,
resulting in low shares of long-term unemployment. These countries
have also high employment rates. For small firms and the seasonal
sector and its workforce, this arrangement seems to be a stabilising
factor, although it involves some cross-subsidisation. As can
be seen by the case of Austria, this does not preclude the extension
of flexible working time to cope with some of the strong seasonal
fluctuation.
Other such efficient combinations include the temporary demand
injection in the economy combined with a training-based job
rotation scheme in Denmark; or the combination of part-time
work, a basic pension scheme and placement activities of temporary
work agencies in the Netherlands.
In general, systemic elements working in the same direction
are more efficient than elements working in opposite directions.
If systemic elements in employment systems are congruent, employment
performance is better. The Danish employment system might be
taken as an example of how such elements interact: high labour
turnover is supported not only by the lay-off system, but also
by labour market training, which itself is congruent with training
leave schemes. Denmark also has both parental leave schemes
and child care provisions which result in more possibilities
for women to participate in working life.
Combination of policies, which result in both flexibility
for firms and security for workers might be the most appropriate
institutional arrangements in European labour markets. To varying
degrees at least three of the four countries have managed to
have such arrangements.
However, given the complexity of these systems thorough research
is needed to determine the precise effect of such combinations.
Timing is also important: temporary leave schemes might be efficient
bridges to the regular labour market in the upswing, but possibly
not in a downturn, as most of the leavers will probably once
again be unemployed after their leave. In an unpredictable and
complex world, such combinations and the right timing also need
some luck in order to add up to successful policies.
Do small countries have specific advantages?
The countries under review are small, only the Netherlands
can be considered middle sized. The four countries account for
around 10% of European Union GDP and around 9% of its total
labour force.
Table 3: GDP and labour force (LF) in % of total EU,
1996
|
Austria
|
Denmark
|
Ireland
|
Netherlands |
| GDP |
LF |
GDP |
LF |
GDP |
LF |
GDP |
LF |
| 2,44 |
2,28 |
2,00 |
1,67 |
0,90 |
0,88 |
4,43 |
4,44 |
| Source: ILO CEPR data bank |
While the three factors of a sound macroeconomic environment
and policy, the social dialogue and labour market policy might
produce their effects also in bigger countries, the mere smallness
of the countries under review might be an additional factor
of success. Katzenstein (1985) has outlined some of the factors,
which distinguish small from larger industrialized countries:
the first of such factors is the economic openness, which is
in part due to the small size of domestic markets. "Dependence
on imports and the necessity to export make the economies of
the small European states both more open and more specialized
than those of larger countries" (Katzenstein, 1985, p. 87).
Secondly, democratic corporatism based on an ideology of social
partnership, a system of centralized and concentrated interest
groups and voluntary and informal coordination of conflicting
objectives. However, while there might be some other advantage
in being small, such as a more homogeneous labour force and
better governability (and thus better cooperation between actors),
this alone cannot be an important factor as most of the countries
went through a major crisis before their present recovery. It
could be however, that once a successful system of "corporatist
governance" is established or reinvigorated, smallness becomes
again a distinct advantage, because of the smaller "power elite"
circles. This in turn leads to more informality and closer personal
relationships which is an important condition for successful
bargaining and consensus. This is certainly one of the reasons
for the success of the Austrian system of social partnership.
The system was run in the seventies by powerful leaders on both
sides, which have since given way to a somewhat more depersonalised
style of governance. Not least because of the danger of such
systems becoming top heavy, there must be a continuous connection
with their constituents, in order to ensure adequate interest
representation. The skill of governance in corporatist governance
systems is to represent group interests and match them with
the interests of the larger economy. This is not always easy.
For example, the latest bargaining round in Denmark was ended
by government intervention because the union bargainers were
not followed by their rank and file.
What can other countries learn from small countries?
It is not only smallness which is important here, but the
traditions and cultures which are the background of different
institutions, and which might make it more difficult to understand
and transfer experience from one country to the other. In particular,
it might be very difficult to adapt "democratic corporatism"
in countries with a liberal, pluralist tradition of policy formulation.
However, smaller countries can teach at least two lessons to
bigger European countries. Firstly while "democratic corporatism"
per se is not the answer to all labour market problems, it seems
that once a real dialogue is established within the overall
framework of corporatism, solutions to the problems can be found.
This also shows that problems are never purely economical but
have always a political dimension, which relates to the forms
of governance. And corporatism seems to be a form of governance
which is of equal efficiency in running the economy as liberal
pluralist (market-led) forms of governance. Especially if equity
issues are taken into account, corporatist governance has clearly
superior performance. The problem of corporatist governance
countries was up to know their failing employment performance.
With this problem solved, the countries seem to have developed
into successful socio-economic models. And although the bigger
countries like France, Germany, Italy and Spain have also their
form of social dialogue, they have experienced many problems
in the recent past. We can remind here of the difficulties to
set up a social concertation (Bündnis für Arbeit)
in Germany -which by the way is at the present more successful
and has very recently helped to trigger reforms and a better
economic climate in Germany, which can be seen as a prove of
the fact, that the social dialogue helps to carry through necessary
reforms. Also France has experienced many problems in its dialogue
(this is due also to the divisions within the labour movement)
but the 35 hours law has certainly renewed at least company
bargaining and the state has often acted as "functional equivalent"to
what in other countries has been done by the social partners.
But both countries have not yet solved their unemployment problem
and should use the dialogue to do so.
The second lesson is that economic openness pays off and that
there seem to be no longer-term negative effects of globalization
on the labour markets of industrialized countries, or at least
no such problems which remain unsolved. Besides this two major
elements (form of governance and degree of economic openness)
there are many other examples of policy elements from the four
success cases, which might help some of the bigger European
countries to overcome their labour market problems. For example,
there is no reason why bigger countries should not be able to
introduce job-rotation schemes along the Danish lines or part-time
regulations like the Dutch. A job rotation system (adapted from
the Danish model) was, for example, recently introduced in Austria,
which has rather similar institutions to Germany. Especially
concerning part-time work, equal treatment with full-time work
is important. There could also be advantages in having a three-pillar
financing system for retirement (a basic pension, a contribution
based system and a private top-up) like in Denmark or in the
Netherlands, in other countries as well. And the Austrian (and
German) apprenticeship system may well still serve as a model
for the introduction of alternate training in other countries.
These are only some examples out of many which show that it
is not impossible to transfer elements of one system to another.
It is almost certain that such convergence of policies and regulations
will be stimulated by the European Monetary Union, which will
inevitably lead to more adjustment in various policy fields.
Another of these "convergence drivers" is the European Employment
Strategy. The common guidelines and the associated monitoring
process must be expected to lead to more convergence in employment
and labour market policies.
We will refrain from a discussion of the transferability of
elements of the small European cases to countries outside the
realm of the core industrialized countries. This problem cannot
be addressed without a thorough analysis of the institutional
and economic conditions in these other countries (e.g. the transition
countries or the developing countries). Concerning the form
of governance, "democratic corporatism" could serve as a model
for governance, but the political prerequisites (e.g. strong
and equal partners) are usually not met. However, even grass-root
corporatism at local level could be later on developed in a
more centralised form of democratic corporatism. In any case,
there seems to be no real alternative to a dialogue between
social actors in order to have some governability in the economy
and this basic principle could apply world-wide.
However, concerning the form of governance, "democratic corporatism"
could serve as a model for governance, if the political prerequisites
(e.g. strong and equal partners, an openness and a will to discuss
problems and to let the social partners participate in decision
making, as well as institutions of the dialogue) are at least
partially met. And even grass-root corporatism at local level
could be later on developed in a more encompassing form of democratic
corporatism. In any case, there seems to be no real alternative
to a dialogue between social actors in order to have some governability
in the economy and this basic principle could apply world-wide.
Another lesson is, that you need both a good mix of passive
and active labour market policies in order to have both a functioning
and sustainable economy and labour market. This can be seen
for example in Asia. Up to the recent crisis existing active
labour market policies were usually designed to cope with labour
shortages and human resource development (Inagami, 1998). During
the crisis, however, the lack of other adjustment policies,
and in particular an unemployment insurance, had an impact both
on poverty and the maintenance of the employability of the workers.
Lee (1999) noticing the lack of an unemployment insurance, puts
forward some of the reasons why such protection systems have
not been installed. Among these reasons were the uninterrupted
path of development up to the crisis with only short term problems
and a belief in the absorption capacities of the informal sector
(and the families) as a safety net. He advances also that the
adepts of the so called "Asian values" rejected the assistance
image linked to the generous western welfare system. In addition
the idea of the employment destroying effects of high non wage
labour costs going together with contribution based unemployment
benefit systems, might also have acted as a barrier.
One could add, that the interpretation of an unemployment
system as a device whose only function is to protect workers
might also have contributed to the "institutional passivity"
of these governments. In fact, and our study shows this clearly,
unemployment systems and active labour market policies have
two functions not only in a time of crisis: they allow for basic
income and social protection, but also for adjustment flexibility
of companies. They are effective buffers around firms and relief
them from some of their social responsibility (which many of
the larger and smaller "paternalistically" governed firms in
fact have) in socialising some of the risks of economic life.
This is certainly one of the lessons of the four country study
which could be of relevance for the developing world in general.
Conclusion
In conclusion the relative labour market success of the three
countries is due partly to country specific factors and partly
to the social dialogue, macroeconomic policy and labour market
policy and specific combination of these and other policies.
The social dialogue achieved a climate of confidence among the
major social actors. Wage moderation contributed to the new
climate of confidence and considerable reforms in the social
protection systems were enacted, mostly within a climate of
negotiation and consensus.
Wage moderation was also the corollary of a stabilisation
oriented macroeconomic policy which led to low inflation and
low interest rates. Labour market policy (and social protection
in general) created the necessary flexibility for adjustment
on the labour markets. Labour market policies and social protection
schemes should therefore not only be seen as a device to secure
income to those without work, but also a sort of "buffer" zone
around regular labour markets enabling firms to shed labour
without paying all the economic and social costs. Early retirement
schemes, which have contributed to success, are -with lay-off
and training systems such as in Denmark, good examples for this.
However, in face of workforce ageing, first signs of labour
shortages and high costs the social protection system has recently
been reformed in all of the countries. Early retirement possibilities
have been restricted and labour market policy activated.
This might only mean that the welfare state -which we see
part and parcel of the success of these countries in achieving
an efficiency/equity balance- shifts from a society which distributes
wealth partly through social transfers to a society which aims
at the participation of a maximum of people in primary revenue
resulting from work. However, there must also be a role of passive
labour market policies in the future, precisely because of its
buffer role. Such an "embedded" labour market, for which the
right portion of active and passive labour market policies are
used, is an alternative to a labour market subject overwhelmingly
to the law of supply and demand in which workers would shoulder
the brunt of adjustment hardship.
In any case, while the four countries differ in many respects
and have by no means achieved "the best of all worlds" they have
made progress towards the goal of full employment. Much remains
to be done, but these countries have shown that employment success
is also feasible in Europe's welfare states that maintain a balance
between economic and social issues.
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Annex 1
Unemployment rates (ILO-definition)
1980-1999

Footnotes:
(1) The present comparative study is
part of the ILO's follow up activities to Commitment Three of
the Declaration and Programme of Action of the World Summit
on Social Development in Copenhagen in 1995. Commitment Three
reiterates the importance of full, productive and freely chosen
employment, as a basic condition for social progress. The study
reviews labour market progress in Austria, Denmark, Ireland
and the Netherlands as part of the overall framework of Country
Employment Policy Reviews, which are also undertaken in other,
less developed regions of the world. This paper is a summary
of a recent ILO book: Peter Auer, Employment Revival in Europe:
Labour Market Success in Austria, Denmark, Ireland and the Netherlands.
ILO, Geneva, 2000. A slightly modified version of this paper
will be presented at the 12th IIRA World Congress in Tokyo.
(2) (Especially the four accounting for
most of the high European unemployment rate: Italy, Germany,
France and Spain, although they have also recently managed to
reduce unemployment) .
(3) To be classified as unemployed, the
respondent to the survey has to be without work, has to be available
for work and has to actively have searched for work in the reference
period.
(4) For a discussion of the concept see
page 25 ff. In Auer, P.,2000.
(5) Although there seem to be considerable
differences between the four countries (e.g. there is evidence
that income inequalities have risen more in Ireland and also
in the Netherlands than in Denmark and Austria. O'Connell, 1999;
Hartog, 1999).
(6) "Corporatist governance" or "democratic
corporatism" is a system of governance, in which the three main
social and economic actors (the government, employers and workers
representatives) shape and even implement policies through the
social dialogue, which manifests itself through national, regional
and local pacts, traditional collective bargaining and the administration
of parts of the employment and social protection schemes.
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Updated by NS. Approved by HS.
Last update: 11 October 2000.
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